Dr. Rajiv Gupta

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HARNESSING TECHNOLOGY IN FIGHT AGAINST COVID 19
by Rajiv Gupta

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The world has been impacted currently by CoVID 19. It has impacted the normal life and impacted almost all the sectors-health, economy, social sector , education etc. The fault lines in the health sector have been highlighted during this pandemic. The health sector has lacked in the capacity to handle this pandemic. The government has launched various measures such as lockdowns, both partial and complete to prevent the spread of the virus. The lockdown has deeply affected the economies of the country worldwide. The predictions of IMF has highlighted that the global GDP of world is bound to experience a negative growth. WEO predicts that India’s GDP is contracting but it will still be in positive figures. This places India at somewhat better place than its counterparts. The question remains is the lockdown required? If yes, then till what time? Many studies have been conducted while the formulation of lockdown policies. The policies in place have failed to undertake a multi criteria for consideration. What we have in place is the idea of one model fits all. But this should not been an approach while public policy formulation, we need wider dimensions to cover. We need to maximise Greater happiness of Greater numbers. The time is apt to harness the technology. Novel dashboard developed by a team of experts from BITS PILANI have been developed a tool to link mathematical calculations for policy formulation. The dashboard takes is a multi criteria decision making tool. The weights in the dashboard are provided by experts and this generates an index which is named as “index of criticality”. The main focus of the weights is that it is taken district wise than state wise. District wise data helps in decentralised understanding of the issue and helps in generating easy and timely benefits. The index studies the impact of covid by examining various indicators such as

  1.Number of tests conducted

  2.Population

  3.Population density

  4.Number of hospitals

  5.Recovery rates

The experts feel that while implementing lockdown policies maximum dimensions had to be kept in mind. The incentives provided by the dashboard is that it collects data from various sources and optimises the weights and then create an index. The index uses machine learning to identify the duster. This dashboard offers various advantages such as- the dashboard is mora interactive than the other models which we have in place. The data is updated in the real time. It can also help in creating zones which can help in differential lockdown policies. The study has also highlighted that it is important for the local administration to take timely and rational decisions. The dashboard which has been developed can prove to be a potent tool in the hand of administrators as it helps in timely prediction of the outcomes within 30 days. The main use of prediction should be to be able to use the prediction for developing the adaptative and mitigation strategies for the society. Also, the most important input for any policy maker is the data. Data acts as a fuel to policy making. The experts have highlighted its importance. The team while answering some of the questions form the audience demarcated that the focus of policy formulation must not be only on quality of data. One must keep working with the data already available doesn’t matter good or bad . Once you have access to data start modelling and structuring. To the question “ will this pandemic end”? this question has kept every one around the world pondering. To this the experts answered , yes it has to end but when that remains a fundamental question and this can be predicted only with extensive studies undertaken by the development of these mathematical models. The answer to the question also depends upon the individual behaviour. Till the time we do not have vaccine in hand, it will remain a matter of concern but its spread can be controlled if the citizens comply with norms of social distancing and wearing of masks.